TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 12:18 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a consensus view on the future price of Ethereum that may differ from spot price expectations or analyst forecasts. This market allows traders to express their beliefs about the price of Ethereum on Oct 31, 2026 in a quantifiable way. If a significant number of traders believe the price will be higher than current spot prices suggest, the odds for those outcomes will increase. Conversely, if traders anticipate a price decline, the odds for lower price ranges will rise. Examining these odds can offer a unique perspective on market sentiment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different Ethereum price ranges. The price of each share reflects the implied probability of that outcome being correct. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market's liquidity, indicated by the volume traded, also influences price discovery. Higher volume generally leads to more accurate price signals.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum as recorded on a widely recognized exchange at a specific time on October 31. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome aligns with the verified price. The specific price range that corresponds to a winning outcome will be determined by the market's structure on Polymarket.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in Ethereum's technology, such as successful upgrades or security breaches, could influence the price. Macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, can also play a role. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly Ethereum, could create volatility. Furthermore, broader market sentiment towards risk assets and the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market will likely affect trading activity and the odds in this market.