TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 8:41 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds represent a distinct perspective on the future Ethereum price compared to typical spot price expectations derived from analysts or polls. While traditional forecasts often rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting what traders are willing to bet on. Discrepancies between this market and broader expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or unique insights held by those actively trading the outcome. It's a fascinating way to gauge collective belief about Ethereum's trajectory.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different Ethereum price ranges, and the prices of these contracts adjust based on supply and demand. As more traders believe the price will be higher, the contracts representing higher prices become more expensive, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective prediction of the market participants, creating an implied probability distribution for the Ethereum price on the resolution date.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum as recorded by a widely recognized and trusted source at the specified time. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of whether the predictions made in this market were accurate. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly influence this market. Major news regarding Ethereum’s development, such as successful upgrades or unforeseen technical issues, could shift trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, could also impact the price of Ethereum and, consequently, this market. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly Ethereum, are also likely to cause volatility. Finally, significant shifts in overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies could move the odds.