TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 12:12 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to typical spot price expectations derived from analysts or polls. While many analysts predict continued volatility, this market reflects a collective forecast based on actual money at stake. Traders are expressing their beliefs about the Ethereum price on October 20 through their buy and sell decisions. This creates a dynamic and potentially more accurate signal than static predictions, as the market continuously adjusts to new information and sentiment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders can buy or sell contracts representing their belief about whether the Ethereum price will fall within a specific range on October 20. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the higher the price of contracts representing that outcome will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum as recorded by a widely recognized and trusted source at the specified time. The specific price range that corresponds to the winning outcome will be determined by that verified price point. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency, particularly Ethereum, would likely have a substantial impact. Significant technological developments related to the Ethereum network, such as successful upgrades or security breaches, could also shift trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation data, can influence investor risk appetite and affect the price of Ethereum. Finally, large-scale adoption or rejection of Ethereum by institutional investors could also drive price movements and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.