TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 12:14 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, the odds in this market reflect a collective forecast for the Ethereum price on October 16. These predictions are derived from the willingness of traders to buy or sell contracts representing different price ranges. Comparing this to spot price expectations from analysts or polls reveals whether the 'wisdom of the crowd' aligns with expert opinions. If analysts predict a higher price than what’s implied by this market, it suggests traders are more bearish, and vice versa. This comparison offers a unique perspective on potential price movements.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different Ethereum price ranges. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the perceived probability of that price range occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price of a contract will increase if many traders believe the corresponding price range is likely, and decrease if they believe it is unlikely. The market's overall price discovery process is driven by the collective actions of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Ethereum price on October 16 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of Ethereum as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source. The specific price range that corresponds to the actual Ethereum price at the specified time will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their losing positions.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Major regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum, could trigger price swings. Unexpected news related to the Ethereum network, such as successful upgrades or security breaches, would also likely move the market. Broader macroeconomic events, like changes in interest rates or inflation data, could impact investor sentiment towards risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Finally, significant shifts in market sentiment driven by influential figures or large institutional investments could also play a role.