TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 12:13 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional spot price expectations. Polls and analyst forecasts for Ethereum’s price on October 14 vary widely, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and expressing expectations as probabilities for specific price ranges. It's important to remember that prediction market prices represent what traders believe *will* happen, not necessarily what they *expect* to happen based on fundamental analysis.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different Ethereum price ranges, and the prices of these shares adjust based on supply and demand. The price of a share reflects the probability that Ethereum will fall within that specific price range on October 14. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s overall price movement is driven by the collective actions of participants, creating a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various outcomes. The current volume is unknown, but it influences price discovery.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome determined by the price of Ethereum as reported by a credible public source at that time. The exact price used for resolution will be verified against widely-recognized and publicly available data feeds. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of whether a particular price range was achieved. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final Ethereum price and the shares they hold in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 14, 2026. Major developments in Ethereum’s technology, such as successful upgrades or unexpected bugs, could shift sentiment. Broader macroeconomic trends, like changes in interest rates or inflation, often influence cryptocurrency prices. Regulatory news, particularly regarding cryptocurrency regulation, could also cause substantial price movements. Finally, significant events impacting the overall cryptocurrency market, such as hacks or security breaches on other platforms, could indirectly affect the Ethereum price market.