TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 12:14 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations for the Ethereum price, often differing from those found in traditional polls or analyst forecasts. While spot price expectations might be based on technical analysis or news events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a forward-looking assessment of probability. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives inherent in prediction markets, where traders are financially motivated to accurately forecast the outcome. These differences can be insightful for understanding market biases and potential mispricings.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the Ethereum price on October 13. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the market. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to changing conditions and provides a real-time estimate of expectations. The current trading volume indicates active participation and a degree of uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Ethereum price on October 13 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and trusted source for Ethereum pricing data. Traders should monitor news and data releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential factors that could influence the outcome. Successful predictions will be rewarded based on the final market odds at the time of resolution, incentivizing accurate forecasting and informed participation.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 13, 2026. Major developments in Ethereum’s technology, such as successful upgrades or unexpected vulnerabilities, could impact price expectations. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly Ethereum, could also trigger substantial shifts in sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, and overall market sentiment towards risk assets could also play a role. Unexpected news regarding competing cryptocurrencies or significant adoption events could also influence trading activity in this market.