TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:35 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional spot price expectations. While spot prices reflect immediate supply and demand, this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders about the future price of Ethereum. If a significant difference emerges between the implied price from this market and analyst forecasts, it could indicate that traders possess information or insights not yet reflected in conventional price predictions. It’s a valuable tool for gauging broader market sentiment beyond simple price discovery.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Ethereum price. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective prediction of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price isn't set by a central authority but emerges from the interactions of traders. The more traders believe the price will be above a certain level, the higher the contracts representing that outcome will be priced, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing creates a real-time forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Ethereum price on October 10 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and trusted source for Ethereum pricing data. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result. It’s important to monitor the market leading up to this date, as the implied probabilities will likely become more refined as new information becomes available.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly Ethereum, would likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected developments in Ethereum’s technology, such as successful upgrades or security breaches, could also shift trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, could influence investor risk appetite and affect the price of Ethereum. Finally, significant news regarding the adoption of Ethereum by large institutions or corporations could also drive movement in this market.