TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 03d:13h:01m
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This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the Ethereum price on November 6. This differs from simple spot price expectations, as the market aggregates insights from numerous traders, representing a weighted average of their beliefs. Polls and analyst forecasts often provide a single point estimate, while this market provides a probability distribution across potential outcomes. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and external forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked information, offering a unique perspective on potential price movements.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different Ethereum price ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that price range being correct on November 6. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s efficiency depends on the number of active traders and the information they incorporate into their decisions. The most popular outcome currently has a chance percentage of 35.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source at the specified time. The market will determine whether the price falls within one of the defined ranges offered in the contracts available for trading. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their chosen outcome aligns with the verified price on that date.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Ethereum’s development, such as successful upgrades or unexpected setbacks, could shift trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic trends, including interest rate changes or shifts in investor risk appetite, are also likely to play a role. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly Ethereum, could introduce volatility. Finally, significant movements in the price of Bitcoin, often seen as a leading indicator for the crypto market, could influence trading activity in this market.