TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 02d:19h:35m
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This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the Ethereum price on November 5. These odds represent what traders believe is the most likely outcome, based on their analysis of available information. Comparing this to spot price expectations from analysts and polls reveals how the 'wisdom of the crowd' differs from expert opinions. If analysts predict a higher or lower price range than what is implied by this market, it suggests a divergence in perspectives. It's important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking, incorporating expectations about future events.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different Ethereum price ranges, and the prices of these shares reflect the perceived probability of each range occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought for a particular price range, the higher its price goes, indicating increased confidence in that outcome. The market's price discovery process aggregates the insights of numerous participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential Ethereum price. The top outcome currently has a chance percentage of 35.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum as recorded on a widely recognized exchange at a specific time on November 5. The precise price used for resolution will be determined by the platform's standard procedures for verifying external data. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of whether a particular price range was achieved, and allows for the accurate distribution of payouts to winning traders.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major news regarding Ethereum's development, such as successful upgrades or unexpected delays, could influence trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation data, can also impact the price of cryptocurrencies. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency regulation, particularly those related to Ethereum, could create volatility. Finally, significant shifts in market sentiment driven by influential figures or large-scale investments could also cause substantial price movements in this market.