TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:34 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Monday, October 12, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Monday, October 12, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional spot price expectations. Analysts and polls suggest varying levels of optimism regarding Ethereum ETF approval and subsequent inflows, but this market reflects the collective judgment of traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between these sources can highlight potential market inefficiencies or differing interpretations of available information. Observing how this market evolves alongside external forecasts provides valuable insight into the overall sentiment surrounding Ethereum ETFs.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and provide a real-time assessment of expectations regarding Ethereum ETF flows.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether there is a net inflow or outflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs on October 12th. The specific amount of flow is not the determining factor, only the direction. This market will settle based on publicly available data from reputable financial sources, providing a transparent and objective assessment of the event's outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 12, 2026. Regulatory announcements regarding Ethereum ETFs, particularly any approvals or delays, would have a substantial impact. Unexpected news related to the overall cryptocurrency market, such as major institutional investments or negative regulatory actions, could also shift sentiment. Finally, macroeconomic data releases that influence investor risk appetite, like inflation reports or interest rate decisions, might affect the perceived attractiveness of Ethereum ETFs and, consequently, this market.