TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
1,800
- Polymarket
1,800 - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2026
Time left: 04d:14h:07m
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of Ethereum being above a certain price on November 7. This contrasts with broader spot price expectations, which may be influenced by a wider range of factors like macroeconomic conditions and regulatory news. However, the prediction market focuses specifically on the likelihood of the price reaching a defined threshold by a specific date, offering a concentrated view of informed speculation. It's important to remember that prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of traders, not necessarily a forecast of the absolute price.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of Ethereum being above a certain price on November 7. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought, the higher the probability implied by the market price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum at a specified time on November 7, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source. The precise price threshold for resolution is set within the market itself and is visible on Polymarket. Traders will then be paid out or have their shares forfeited based on whether the outcome matches their prediction.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Ethereum’s development, such as successful upgrades or unforeseen technical issues, could shift trader sentiment. Broader cryptocurrency market trends, including Bitcoin’s performance and overall investor risk appetite, will also play a role. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly regarding Ethereum, could introduce volatility. Finally, macroeconomic events, like changes in interest rates or inflation data, could influence the price of Ethereum and, consequently, the trading activity in this market.