TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
1,900
- Polymarket
1,900 - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Time left: 02d:19h:06m
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional spot price expectations. While spot prices reflect immediate buying and selling pressure, this market aggregates the beliefs of informed traders regarding the price of Ethereum on a specific date in the future. If a significant discrepancy exists between the implied probability in this market and analyst forecasts, it could signal an opportunity or a disagreement about future market conditions. It’s important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own assessment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the market's collective probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought, the higher the price goes, indicating increasing confidence in Ethereum being above the specified price on November 5th, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum at a specified time on November 5th, as determined by a widely recognized and reliable data source. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their shares correctly predicted if Ethereum was above the target price at that moment. This ensures a transparent and objective outcome for all participants.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major news regarding Ethereum’s development, such as successful upgrades or unexpected delays, could impact trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation data, could also influence the price of Ethereum and, consequently, this market. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency regulations, or significant shifts in institutional investment, are other potential catalysts that could drive price movements and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.