TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks Ethereum's price performance at a specific future date and time, dividing possible outcomes into narrow, sequential ranges. The resolution depends on the precise value of Ethereum's price at the defined moment, measured by an average of real-time index prices collected in the final minute before expiration.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) immediately before 5 PM EDT on October 9, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the market resolving to 'Yes' is the one whose range contains this average price. If the average falls within a defined range, the associated market is settled as the winner. The official price is determined by averaging 60 ERTI prices collected in the last minute before 5 PM EDT, ensuring precision and consistency despite variations across other data sources. All markets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, covering every possible price outcome from below $1,789.99 up to above $3,709.99.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the ETH price on Oct 9, 2026 that may differ from those found in traditional financial surveys or analyst reports. This market represents the wisdom of the crowd, aggregating the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market prices and spot price expectations, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and potential future events. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different ETH price ranges. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of the ETH price falling within that range on Oct 9, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contracts closest to the current spot price typically have the highest volume, while those representing more extreme price movements are less liquid. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the ETH price at 5pm EDT on October 9, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the ETH price as recorded by a widely recognized and trusted source. The specific price range that corresponds to the actual ETH price at the specified time will determine which contracts pay out, and the amount paid will depend on the contract’s initial price and the volume traded.
Numerous factors could influence this market between now and Oct 9, 2026. Major developments in the Ethereum ecosystem, such as significant upgrades to the network or changes in its governance, could have a substantial impact. Broader macroeconomic conditions, including inflation rates, interest rate decisions, and global economic growth, will also play a role. Regulatory announcements related to cryptocurrencies, particularly those impacting Ethereum, could also cause significant price swings. Finally, unexpected events like security breaches or major adoption announcements could move this market.