TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines the price range of Ethereum on a specific date and time by analyzing real-time index data. The outcome depends on where the average price falls within predefined brackets, offering a granular view of potential market behavior at that moment.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) immediately before 5 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price range, from $1,439.99 or below up to $3,360 or above. The official price is derived from averaging 60 ERTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. Participants should note that while external sources like Google or Coinbase may offer guidance, the resolving price strictly follows CF Benchmarks' ERTI data, ensuring consistency and transparency across all range-based outcomes.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations for the ETH price on October 30, 2026. These expectations are formed by traders directly expressing their beliefs through buy and sell orders in this market. This contrasts with traditional spot price expectations, which are often based on analyst forecasts, fundamental analysis, or media sentiment. It’s important to note that prediction markets can sometimes offer a more accurate forecast, as traders have ‘skin in the game’ and are incentivized to make informed predictions. Examining these differences can provide a unique perspective on potential price movements.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and contracts trade when there's a matching price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract representing a specific ETH price range reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of ETH being within that range at the specified time. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. Volume and open interest also play a role in price discovery.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the ETH price at 5pm EDT on October 30, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to the contracts representing the price range that contains the actual ETH price at the specified time. The exact payout amount will depend on the contract's price at resolution. Traders should monitor reliable financial news sources for the official ETH price to understand the resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major developments in Ethereum's technology, such as successful upgrades or unforeseen vulnerabilities, could influence price expectations. Regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency, particularly those impacting ETH, would also likely cause movement. Broader macroeconomic conditions, including inflation rates, interest rate decisions, and global economic growth, can also play a role. Unexpected events, like major hacks or security breaches affecting the Ethereum network, could also lead to substantial shifts in the market.