TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines the price range of Ethereum on a specific date and time by evaluating the average price over the final minute against predefined brackets. The outcome depends solely on where the calculated average falls within the specified intervals.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. If this average falls within any of the defined price ranges—from $1,489.99 or below up to $3,410 or above—the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' All markets share identical secondary rules, which specify that while public sources like Google or Coinbase may offer indicative values, the official price is derived exclusively from CF Benchmarks' ERTI. The final determination uses the average of 60 ERTI prices collected during the last minute before expiration, ensuring precision and standardization across all outcomes.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of where ETH will trade in late 2026. These expectations are formed by individuals putting their capital at risk, which can differ from traditional spot price predictions made by analysts or polls. While analysts might base their forecasts on technical analysis or fundamental valuations, this market represents a 'wisdom of the crowd' approach, aggregating diverse perspectives. It's important to remember that prediction markets aren’t necessarily trying to predict the *exact* price, but rather the probability of it falling within specific ranges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price of each outcome reflects the probability that traders assign to it. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular price range is likely, the higher the price for that outcome will be. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the latest information and sentiment, constantly adjusting as new data becomes available and traders update their beliefs about the future ETH price.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome determined by the ETH price at 5pm EDT on October 23, 2026. The price will be verified against credible public reporting from established financial data providers. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the ETH price range. It’s important to monitor the market leading up to this date, as trading volume and price movements may increase as the resolution date approaches and more information becomes available.
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in Ethereum's technology, such as successful upgrades or unforeseen vulnerabilities, could influence the price. Regulatory changes regarding cryptocurrencies, particularly in key jurisdictions, are also likely to have an effect. Broader macroeconomic factors, like inflation rates, interest rate decisions, and global economic growth, can also play a role. Finally, significant shifts in market sentiment, potentially triggered by news events or influential figures, could cause substantial price movements in this market.