TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) will be above $1749.99 at 5 PM EDT on October 9, 2026. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. The resolution source for this market is CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI). Traders should closely watch the price of Ethereum leading up to October 9, 2026, as the market will resolve based on the ERTI price at 5 PM EDT on that date.
All markets in this event resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) immediately before 5 PM EDT on October 9, 2026. For each market, if this average exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., $1,750, $1,790, etc.), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The official price is determined by collecting 60 ERTI prices during the final minute before expiration and averaging them. This methodology ensures consistency across all thresholds, with each market independently evaluating whether Ethereum's price meets or exceeds its respective target at the exact resolution time.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional spot price expectations for Ethereum. While spot prices reflect immediate supply and demand, this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders regarding the price of ETH nearly two years in the future. This forward-looking view can differ significantly from current spot prices, especially considering the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Analyzing the difference between these two can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential future price movements.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different ETH price outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the future price of ETH, as profitable trades are possible when their predictions align with the actual outcome. The current market depth and order flow provide a real-time indication of market participants’ expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a widely-recognized and publicly available source for ETH pricing at 5pm EDT on October 9, 2026. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor news and data sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential factors that could influence the final price.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in Ethereum’s technology, such as successful upgrades or unforeseen vulnerabilities, could impact the price. Regulatory changes regarding cryptocurrencies, particularly in key jurisdictions, are also likely to cause shifts in market sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, like inflation rates, interest rate decisions, and global economic growth, could also play a role. Finally, significant adoption or rejection of Ethereum by institutional investors could substantially influence the price.