TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks Ethereum's price performance at a specific future date and time, using a standardized benchmark index to determine outcomes across multiple thresholds. Participants can assess various price levels and their likelihoods based on current market trends and projections.
All markets in this event resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. Each market has a distinct price threshold, specified in its title (e.g., $1,450 or above). If the calculated average exceeds the threshold for a given market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The ERTI is the sole source for price determination, and the average of 60 data points collected in the final minute before expiration constitutes the official value. This methodology ensures consistency across all markets by using a unified, time-bound measurement approach, eliminating ambiguity from fluctuating external data sources.
Prediction market odds represent a forward-looking assessment of probability, reflecting what traders believe will happen with the ETH price. This differs from spot price expectations, which are based on current market conditions and immediate supply/demand. While spot prices react to news and events as they unfold, this market incorporates anticipation of future developments. If a significant event is expected to impact the ETH price, the odds will likely shift before the event occurs, potentially diverging from current spot price expectations. This is a key advantage of using prediction markets to gauge future outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different ETH price outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time forecast. This mechanism allows for a decentralized and efficient price discovery process, driven by the wisdom of the crowd. The current contracts available represent a range of potential ETH prices on the resolution date.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the ETH price at 5pm EDT on October 23, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and trusted source for ETH price data. The contract corresponding to the price range closest to the actual ETH price at the specified time will be considered the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts for that price range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for other ranges will not.
Numerous factors could influence the ETH price and, consequently, this market. Major developments in Ethereum’s technology, such as successful upgrades or unforeseen vulnerabilities, could significantly impact the price. Regulatory changes related to cryptocurrencies, both positive and negative, are also likely to move the market. Broader macroeconomic conditions, like inflation rates, interest rate decisions, and global economic growth, can also play a role. Finally, significant shifts in investor sentiment, driven by news events or social media trends, could cause substantial price fluctuations in this market.