TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
$1,960 or above
- Kalshi
$1,960 or above - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 6, 2026
Time left: 03d:22h:39m
$
This event tracks Ethereum's price performance at a specific future date and time, using a standardized benchmark index to determine outcomes across multiple thresholds. Each threshold represents a distinct price level that, if met or exceeded, triggers a resolution for the corresponding market.
All markets in this event resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) immediately before 5 PM EST on November 6, 2026. For each market, if this average exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., $1,200, $1,240, etc.), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The official price is determined exclusively by CF Benchmarks' ERTI, with the final value calculated as the average of 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration. This methodology ensures consistency across all thresholds, with each market independently evaluating whether its specific price barrier has been surpassed.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the ETH price in late 2026. This differs from simple spot price expectations, which only represent the current market value. This market incorporates a broader range of factors, including anticipated future events, technological developments, and regulatory changes that could influence the price of ETH. While spot prices are reactive, this market allows for a forward-looking assessment of potential price movements based on the wisdom of the crowd. It’s a way to see what traders believe will happen, not just what is happening now.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on whether the actual ETH price at the specified time will be above or below the contract price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, and the market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs. This creates a real-time probability distribution for the ETH price on November 6, 2026.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome determined by the ETH price at 5pm EST on November 6, 2026. The price will be verified against credible public reporting of the ETH price from established financial data providers. The contract will pay out $1.00 to the winning side – those who correctly predicted whether the actual ETH price would be above or below the price indicated by their contracts. Traders should monitor the market closely as the resolution date approaches to understand the potential payout scenarios.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency, particularly ETH, would have a substantial impact. Significant technological advancements or setbacks in the Ethereum network, such as upgrades or security breaches, could also drive price fluctuations. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or global economic conditions, could also influence investor sentiment and the ETH price. Finally, unexpected news related to the adoption of ETH by institutions or large corporations could create volatility in this market.