TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
This event tracks the price of Dogecoin on a specific date and time, dividing possible outcomes into narrow numerical ranges. Each range represents a distinct pricing scenario that will determine the resolution of the market based on a standardized benchmark.
The event resolves based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured immediately before 5 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. Thirty-nine separate price ranges, each spanning $0.005 increments from $0.0099999 or below up to $0.2 or above, define possible outcomes. If the calculated average falls within any specified range at the exact measurement time, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; all other markets resolve to 'No'. All outcomes share identical methodology and data source requirements, with CF Benchmarks' index being the exclusive authority for price determination regardless of discrepancies with other public sources.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast about the Dogecoin price in late 2026. These odds represent what traders believe is the probability of Dogecoin falling within specific price ranges at the designated time. This differs from simply looking at current spot prices or analyst predictions, as this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. While spot prices reflect the immediate value, and analyst predictions are individual opinions, this market provides a forward-looking probability distribution based on actual money at stake. It’s a way to gauge market sentiment about a future event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different Dogecoin price ranges. The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of each range being the correct one. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders buy into a particular price range, the higher its contract price becomes, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment regarding Dogecoin’s potential future value.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Dogecoin price at 5pm EDT on October 23, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out to the contract holders whose predicted price range encompasses the actual Dogecoin price at that specific time. The resolution will be based on a publicly available, authoritative source for the Dogecoin price, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. It’s important to monitor news and market data leading up to this date to stay informed.
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency landscape, such as regulatory changes or the adoption of Dogecoin by large companies, could drive price movements. Technological advancements related to Dogecoin, like upgrades to its blockchain or the introduction of new features, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, shifts in overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies, driven by economic factors or news events, could cause traders to reassess their predictions. Unexpected news regarding Elon Musk, a prominent Dogecoin supporter, could also create volatility in this market.