TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.3b
24H VOL:
$160,757,820
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,798,566,680
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,796,460,506
516,586
Markets across
38,144
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,845
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Closed: Oct 16, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines the price range of Dogecoin on a specific date and time by checking its average value against predefined brackets. The outcome depends solely on where the price falls within these ranges at the exact moment specified.
The event resolves based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured immediately before 5 PM EDT on October 16, 2026. Thirty-nine distinct price brackets, each covering a $0.005 increment from $0.00999 or below up to $0.20 or above, define possible outcomes. If the average price falls within any given bracket at the specified time, the corresponding market resolves as 'Yes,' with all others resolving as 'No.' All markets share identical secondary rules emphasizing that CF Benchmarks' index is the definitive source, regardless of other publicly available price data. The structure ensures mutually exclusive outcomes, with exactly one bracket satisfying the condition at resolution.
Currently, prediction market odds represent a forward-looking assessment of Dogecoin’s price, incorporating a wide range of factors beyond just the current spot price. Unlike polls that capture general opinions, this market aggregates the informed beliefs of individuals with ‘skin in the game’ – those willing to put capital behind their predictions. This can lead to odds that differ from simple surveys or analyst forecasts, as traders weigh potential risks and rewards based on their own research and insights into the cryptocurrency landscape. The collective wisdom of the crowd often provides a unique perspective.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different Dogecoin price ranges at any time. The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving expectations of market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a specific price range, the price of those contracts increases, indicating a higher probability of Dogecoin falling within that range. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome determined by the price of Dogecoin at 5:00 PM EDT on October 16, 2026. The final price will be verified against credible public reporting from established financial data providers. The contract corresponding to the price range that includes the actual Dogecoin price at the specified time will pay out $1.00 per contract, while all other contracts will expire worthless. This ensures a clear and objective resolution based on verifiable market data.
Numerous factors could influence the Dogecoin price market between now and its resolution. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as regulatory changes or the adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, could significantly impact Dogecoin’s price. News regarding Dogecoin’s development, including upgrades to its blockchain or partnerships with major companies, could also move the market. Macroeconomic factors, like inflation rates and interest rate decisions, and even social media trends and influencer endorsements can all play a role in shaping market sentiment and driving price fluctuations.