TOTAL VOLUME:
$155.1b
24H VOL:
$337,672,170
24H TRANSACTIONS:
3,002,125,488
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,014,360,784
421,272
Markets across
40,138
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,437
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Dogecoin's price exceeds specific thresholds by a set time in the future. The resolution depends on the average price measured over a short period before the deadline, using a standardized benchmark for consistency.
All markets share a common structure: each resolves to 'Yes' if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) prior to 5 PM EDT on Oct 30, 2026, exceeds a specified threshold. Thresholds range incrementally from $0.005 to $0.2. The same data source and timing apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation. Secondary rules clarify that while public sources like Google or Coinbase may offer reference points, CF Benchmarks' RTI is the exclusive authority for resolution.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than simple spot price expectations. While spot prices reflect the immediate value of Dogecoin, this market represents a collective forecast of its value on a specific date in the future. Discrepancies can arise from factors like anticipated news events, regulatory changes, or shifts in broader market trends. If many believe Dogecoin will increase significantly, the price of contracts predicting higher values will rise, potentially diverging from the current spot price. This difference highlights the market’s forward-looking nature and incorporates a wider range of potential influences.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different Dogecoin price predictions. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that price being realized on October 30, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates available information and provides a real-time assessment of future Dogecoin value. The market’s depth and liquidity are influenced by the number of active traders and the volume of contracts traded.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of Dogecoin as reported by a widely recognized and reputable cryptocurrency exchange at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. The contract corresponding to the closest price range to the actual closing price will be considered the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts for the winning price range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for other ranges will not.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in cryptocurrency regulation, particularly regarding Dogecoin, would likely have a substantial impact. Significant endorsements or integrations of Dogecoin by prominent companies or individuals could also drive price fluctuations. Broader macroeconomic trends, such as changes in interest rates or inflation, could influence investor sentiment towards risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Unexpected technological advancements or security breaches related to Dogecoin’s blockchain could also cause volatility in this market.