TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Dogecoin's price reaches various thresholds by a specific date and time. The outcome depends on the cryptocurrency's trading value at the exact moment, measured by a trusted index. Each threshold represents a different level of price achievement.
The event determines if the Dogecoin price, measured by the CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI), exceeds specified thresholds during a 60-second average period ending at 5 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct price level, defined as a numerical value (e.g., $0.005, $0.01, etc.). For a market to resolve as 'Yes,' the 60-second average price must be strictly above the market's threshold value at the exact resolution time. All markets share the same resolution procedure and data source, with the DOGEUSD_RTI serving as the definitive price reference. The 'Yes' outcome occurs only if the average price surpasses the precise threshold, while any failure to meet or exceed it results in a 'No' outcome. Secondary rules emphasize that external price sources may differ, but CF Benchmarks' RTI is the sole authority for resolution.
Comparing prediction market odds to spot price expectations reveals how traders are factoring in future events and sentiment. Currently, this market reflects a collective forecast that may differ from the Dogecoin spot price or traditional analyst predictions. Discrepancies can arise from factors like anticipated regulatory changes, technological advancements, or shifts in public perception. If analysts generally expect a price increase, but this market shows lower probabilities for higher price ranges, it suggests traders believe those optimistic forecasts are unlikely to materialize. The market aggregates diverse perspectives, potentially offering a more nuanced view than any single prediction.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different Dogecoin price outcomes. The prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's depth and liquidity, indicated by the volume traded, influence how efficiently prices reflect new information. Traders are constantly updating their assessments, leading to dynamic price movements based on their individual beliefs about the future Dogecoin price.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Dogecoin price at 5pm EDT on October 23, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will pay out based on which price range Dogecoin falls into at the specified time. The exact price will be sourced from a widely recognized and trusted exchange, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will then receive payouts according to their positions in the market, reflecting the accuracy of their predictions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in cryptocurrency regulation, particularly regarding Dogecoin, would likely have a substantial impact. Significant technological upgrades to the Dogecoin network, such as improvements in scalability or security, could also shift trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic trends, like changes in interest rates or inflation, can influence investor risk appetite and affect the price of cryptocurrencies. Finally, endorsements from high-profile figures or large-scale adoption by businesses could create positive momentum, while negative news or security breaches could trigger a sell-off.