TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Dogecoin's price reaches various thresholds by a specific date and time. The outcome depends on the cryptocurrency's market performance measured by a designated index at a set moment, reflecting potential growth or stability in its value.
The event evaluates multiple price thresholds for Dogecoin on October 16, 2026, at 5 PM EDT, using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured immediately before 5 PM EDT as the determining price source. Each threshold represents a distinct market outcome, resolving to "Yes" if the index exceeds the specified value (e.g., $0.005, $0.01, etc.) at the evaluation time. All markets share the same evaluation methodology and time, ensuring consistency across thresholds. Secondary rules emphasize that CF Benchmarks' index is the authoritative source, distinguishing it from other potential price references like exchange-specific data or aggregated consumer platforms.
Prediction market odds represent a forward-looking assessment of probabilities, reflecting what traders believe will happen with the Dogecoin price on the specified date. This differs from spot price expectations, which are based on current market conditions and immediate supply and demand. While spot prices react to news and short-term fluctuations, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of individuals making considered predictions about a future event. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk appetites, information advantages, or simply varying interpretations of available data, offering a unique perspective beyond current price points.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different Dogecoin price outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the market's expectations. The current volume of $39,076 indicates the level of interest and activity in this particular market.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Dogecoin price at 5pm EDT on October 16, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price reported by a widely recognized and trusted financial data source. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual Dogecoin price falls within the range specified by each contract, allowing traders to profit from correctly predicting the future price.
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency space, such as regulatory changes or technological advancements, could influence Dogecoin’s price. News regarding adoption by large companies or influential figures could also cause substantial shifts. Macroeconomic factors, like inflation rates or interest rate decisions, can also play a role. Unexpected events, such as security breaches or significant network upgrades, could also move the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market as it approaches Oct 16, 2026.