Who will be eliminated this week?

Currently, prediction market odds often differ from those of traditional analysts and polls. While analysts may focus on factors like past performance or dance style, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the eliminations. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies or the inclusion of factors not typically considered by analysts, such as social media sentiment or unexpected events during the show. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outperforming static analyst predictions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular contestant being eliminated, the price of those shares increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on which contestants are officially eliminated following the Week 2 performances and judging on Dancing With The Stars. The official results announced by the show's producers will serve as the source for determining the winning outcome. Traders will then be settled based on the final probabilities reflected in the market prices at the time of resolution.

Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected injuries to contestants, controversial judging decisions, or significant shifts in public opinion driven by social media could all impact trading activity. Performances during the live show will be a major catalyst, with strong or weak routines likely to cause substantial price adjustments. Any news regarding contestant personal lives or behind-the-scenes drama could also influence traders' perceptions and, consequently, the probabilities reflected in this market.