TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 27, 6:56 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether CXMT’s closing IPO market cap will reach at least 2 trillion yuan on its first day of trading, currently showing 100.0% probability on Polymarket. The resolution will be based on official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. Watch for the IPO event, as the market will resolve to "No" if no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is greater than or equal to the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”. Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
On Polymarket, odds in this market reflect collective trader sentiment, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts. Where analysts may project a cautious or bullish outlook based on fundamentals, the market price incorporates real-time betting dynamics and may react faster to news, rumors, or sentiment shifts that influence investor appetite for CXMT.
On Polymarket, this market uses a decentralized prediction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts based on their outlook for the CXMT IPO market cap. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current probability reflects aggregated trader sentiment, with market depth and recent trades influencing price fluctuations. Volume of $326,018 provides insight into trader interest, while the 24-hour volume of $233,823 shows short-term activity levels. As the IPO date approaches, new information can shift expectations and change the odds.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the CXMT IPO’s closing market cap is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price per share multiplied by the number of issued shares on the first trading day will set the result, triggering automatic settlement of all contracts.
Several signals could impact this market before Dec 31, 2026. Key catalysts include official IPO filings, market conditions on the day of listing, analyst reports, and investor sentiment surrounding the company’s prospects. Any surprise announcements about financial performance, leadership changes, or macro-economic shifts may also affect trader expectations. As the IPO date nears, real-time news flow and trading volume will be the most influential factors shaping this market’s trajectory.