TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$618

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 8:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$618
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $614, and the total volume traded to date, which is $618. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price increases or decreases in crude oil during the specified timeframe. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market offers a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing probabilities about the future price movement. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probability and analyst opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or differing levels of confidence. It’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations, and this market represents a forward-looking assessment based on real-money incentives.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more traders bet on a particular outcome, the price of that outcome’s contract will increase, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:30 AM and 8:45 AM Eastern Time on October 26th. If the price is higher at 8:45 AM than at 8:30 AM, the ‘Up’ outcome will win; if it’s lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will win. The exact price difference is not relevant, only the direction of the change.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or changes in political stability, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth figures), can also move the market. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, or any significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), could trigger substantial price movements and thus affect trading activity in this market.