TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$2,553

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 3:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$229
$2,553
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down as of October 26th. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,557, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,553. This allows traders to quickly assess market activity and potential trends in this specific market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic data and geopolitical factors, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and potential black swan events. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly in volatile markets. The question is whether the collective judgment expressed in this market will prove more accurate than expert predictions regarding the direction of crude oil prices.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:15 PM ET and 3:30 PM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 3:30 PM ET than at 3:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any surprising news regarding inventory levels, refinery outages, or major energy company announcements could cause substantial price movements. Keep an eye on these developments, as they are likely to drive changes in the probabilities reflected in this market.