TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$635

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$15
$635
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, alongside the total volume traded—currently $635—and the 24-hour trading volume, which is $631. The dashboard also displays a price history, allowing you to see how the market’s expectations have shifted over time. This provides a clear overview of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and directional recommendations for crude oil, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and potential scenarios. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially identifying overlooked factors or risks that aren’t fully priced into conventional forecasts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment. The current volume traded indicates the level of interest and conviction among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:30 PM ET and 1:45 PM ET on October 26th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price change.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical developments in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, are a key catalyst. Furthermore, any surprising data releases related to crude oil inventories, production levels, or global economic growth could influence trader sentiment. Major announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases will also likely have a substantial impact. Finally, unforeseen disruptions to oil supply chains, like those caused by extreme weather events, could also drive price fluctuations and shift the odds in this market.