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412,077

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 5:45AM-6AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,396

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 6:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 5:45AM-6AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$1,396
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,396, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,396. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding this particular event.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will happen. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can sometimes incorporate information that isn't yet reflected in public forecasts. Examining these differences can offer a unique perspective on potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market, making it a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 5:45 AM and 6:00 AM Eastern Time on October 23rd. The direction of that change—up or down—will determine the winning outcome. The platform will verify this information against established financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also drive price movements. Even weather patterns, especially concerning potential hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, can impact oil prices and therefore shift the odds in this market.