TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

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$333,432,169

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2,984,640,614

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$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

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4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$685

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 4:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$211
$685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T08:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T08:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $687, and the total volume traded to date, which is $685. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity. The dashboard is updated frequently to reflect the latest trading activity and provides a clear visualization of where traders are placing their bets regarding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions on crude oil price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It's common to see discrepancies, as analysts may rely on specific models or data sets, whereas this market incorporates a broader spectrum of factors. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as conditions change. Traders are constantly evaluating factors influencing crude oil, and their collective actions determine the market’s price.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 4:30 AM and 4:45 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. The final price will be compared to the opening price to determine whether the market settles in the 'up' or 'down' direction. The result will be publicly available and easily verifiable through standard financial news sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any unforeseen weather events that might affect oil production or transportation could all contribute to price volatility and shifts in the odds displayed in this market.