TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,435

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 3:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$341
$1,435
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T07:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T07:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how predictions have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,452, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,435. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the potential direction of oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic data and geopolitical factors, this market incorporates a broader range of information, including sentiment and unforeseen events. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information and represent the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds represent the most up-to-date assessment of the likely outcome, as perceived by the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:15 AM and 3:30 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. The direction of the price change – whether it increases or decreases – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also drive price movements. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases, or even weather events impacting oil infrastructure, have the potential to shift trader sentiment and significantly alter the odds in this market.