TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,894,304,386

408,643

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39,771

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$604

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$198
$604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a dynamic display of the odds, reflecting what traders are willing to bet on the outcome. It also shows the price history, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. Finally, the dashboard provides a clear view of the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $603, and the total volume traded to date, which is $604. This gives a comprehensive overview of market activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and directional recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and real-time reactions to news. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly. This difference can be valuable for understanding the collective expectation surrounding the crude oil price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the close of trading on October 22nd. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price going up.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:15 PM ET and 2:30 PM ET on October 22nd. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a price decrease will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down.' The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant weather events that might affect oil production or transportation could influence trading activity and shift the probabilities in this market.