TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,400

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 1:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$213
$1,400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,396, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,400. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing price targets and directional guidance for crude oil, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This can lead to a more accurate signal, as traders are incentivized to be correct. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd expressed through this market, especially when considering unforeseen geopolitical or economic factors that could impact oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of the price going up or down is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, providing a dynamic assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:15 PM ET and 1:30 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 1:30 PM ET than at 1:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or surprising economic data releases (such as inventory reports or GDP figures) could all trigger substantial price swings. Furthermore, any major disruptions to oil supply, like pipeline outages or attacks on oil infrastructure, would likely have a significant impact. Shifts in global demand expectations, influenced by factors like China's economic growth or a potential recession, could also drive movement in this market.