TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10PM-10:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$647

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10PM-10:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10PM-10:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 10:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10PM-10:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$320
$647
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the price history showing how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, indicating how much activity there has been in this market recently. Currently, the volume is $643, and the total volume is $647. This provides a snapshot of market sentiment and trading activity.

Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of opinions and potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities based on real-time trading activity. Currently, the market’s implied probability differs from many recent analyst reports, which generally predict a more stable price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will increase or decrease. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly reflect new information and changing expectations. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:00 PM ET and 10:15 PM ET on October 22nd. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies, could cause substantial price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also move the market. Furthermore, any major news regarding oil inventories or unexpected supply disruptions would likely impact trading activity and shift the odds in this market.