TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

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4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$338

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 12:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3
$338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T15:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T15:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $338, and the total volume traded to date, which is $338. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving. The dashboard helps visualize the collective prediction regarding future crude oil price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when there’s significant uncertainty or disagreement about the factors influencing the crude oil price. Examining these differences can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of the potential price trajectory.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders responding to new information and adjusting their expectations. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the crude oil price during the specified 11:45 AM - 12:00 PM ET window on October 21st. The final price will be compared to a baseline to determine whether the market settles in favor of ‘Up’ or ‘Down’. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their positions in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also have a substantial impact. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory reports are likely to cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any significant weather events impacting oil infrastructure could influence trading activity in this market.