TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$446

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 9:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$98
$446
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T01:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T01:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of prices going up or down, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume is $446 and the total volume for this market is $446. This allows participants to see how other traders are positioning themselves and understand the market’s sentiment. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective forecast for the direction of crude oil prices.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of information than analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and reports, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and potentially reacting more quickly to new information. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can sometimes identify overlooked risks or opportunities. However, both sources aim to forecast the same underlying event, and comparing them can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether crude oil prices will be higher or lower by the specified time. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. As more traders express their views, the odds converge toward a consensus forecast. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange during the 9:15PM-9:30PM ET window on October 20th. The direction of price movement—up or down—relative to the opening price will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in major oil-producing regions, could cause prices to spike. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases could heavily influence market sentiment. Even weather patterns, especially those impacting oil transportation, have the potential to move this market.