TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

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4,340

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5

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37%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$60

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 6:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 6PM-6:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$60
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T22:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T22:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how predictions have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $60, and the total volume traded to date, which is $60. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for crude oil prices, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of whether the price will be higher or lower at the specified time. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own opinion on the future price of crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of the price of crude oil going up or down, as perceived by the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their predictions. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations, distinct from static forecasts.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil at the specified time, 6:00 PM - 6:15 PM Eastern Time on October 20th. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency. The market will then determine whether the price went up or down from its starting point.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 20, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major drivers. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also influence prices. Unexpected supply disruptions, like refinery outages or pipeline issues, could create upward pressure. Finally, shifts in investor sentiment and broader financial market trends can all contribute to volatility in the crude oil price market.