TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

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4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$248

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$248
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $250, and the total volume traded to date, which is $248. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how traders are positioning themselves on this market. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for crude oil prices, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of whether the price will be higher or lower at a specific point in time. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. Examining these differences can be insightful, but it’s important to remember that this market reflects what traders believe will happen, not necessarily what experts predict.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and trading activity, offering a dynamic assessment of potential price changes. This creates a real-time probability assessment of the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the crude oil price, specifically the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract, is higher or lower at 4:45 PM Eastern Time on October 20th, compared to its price at 4:30 PM Eastern Time on the same day. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or shifts in the US dollar's strength could also influence trader sentiment and cause price fluctuations in this market. Any news impacting supply or demand will likely be reflected in trading activity.