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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 2:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T06:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T06:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear overview of market activity and the collective forecast of traders.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and directional recommendations for crude oil, this market represents the aggregated judgment of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. Comparing this market to prevailing analyst sentiment can reveal areas of agreement or disagreement regarding the future price of oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price moving up. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on October 19th and the closing price at 2:45 AM ET. The direction of the price change – whether it’s up or down – will determine the winning outcome for this market. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the resolution is confirmed.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions to oil supply in major producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policy, could cause substantial price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand, like manufacturing indices or inventory reports, also have the potential to move the market. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or unexpected weather events impacting oil infrastructure could also play a role in shaping trader sentiment and influencing the price of this market.