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410,482

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 1:30 AM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard is regularly updated to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to forecasts that diverge from those published by financial institutions or individual experts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:15 AM and 1:30 AM ET on October 19th. The market will determine whether the price went up or down during that period, based on publicly available data from established financial sources. The outcome will be binary – either 'Up' or 'Down'.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also have a substantial impact. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant weather events that could affect oil production or transportation are likely to influence trading activity in this market. Unexpected announcements from major oil companies could also move the price.