TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

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4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 11:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and gauge the market's sentiment regarding the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potentially reacting more quickly to new developments. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as traders weigh factors that might not be fully captured in standard analyses. This difference can be particularly noticeable in volatile markets or when unexpected events occur.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the price will go up, the higher the 'up' contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM Eastern Time on October 19, 2026. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and the outcome will reflect that direction.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also have a substantial impact. Additionally, shifts in inventory levels, refinery outages, or even significant weather events affecting oil infrastructure could all contribute to price fluctuations and, consequently, movement in this market.