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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 9AM-9:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 9AM-9:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 9AM-9:15AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 9:15 AM EST

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 9AM-9:15AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $0, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and trading activity related to short-term crude oil price movements.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions from this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or expert opinions. While analysts may focus on fundamental factors like supply and demand, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders considering all available information, including geopolitical events, economic indicators, and even sentiment analysis. It’s a different approach to forecasting, and the results can often diverge from conventional wisdom.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified 9AM-9:15AM ET window on October 16. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil at 9:15 AM ET on October 16, compared to the price at 9:00 AM ET on the same day. If the price at 9:15 AM ET is higher than at 9:00 AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, 'Crude Oil Down' will prevail.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, would likely cause substantial price swings. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US inventory reports), could also influence trader sentiment. Even unexpected statements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in US monetary policy could move this market considerably in either direction.