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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$43

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $43, and the total volume traded to date, which is $43. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term oil price fluctuations. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on this specific event.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, it’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information from a wider range of sources and react more quickly to new developments than traditional polls or analyst reports. If analysts are generally predicting a price increase, we might expect to see the ‘Crude Oil Up’ outcome favored in this market, though discrepancies can and do occur. The collective wisdom of traders here offers a unique perspective, potentially diverging from conventional wisdom.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds will shift based on the volume and direction of trades, providing a dynamic assessment of market expectations. Traders are essentially betting on their predictions, and their combined actions set the price.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the crude oil price between 9:30 AM ET and 9:45 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 9:45 AM ET than at 9:30 AM ET, the ‘Crude Oil Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Crude Oil Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, could cause a rapid price shift. Major economic data releases, like inventory reports or manufacturing indices, can also impact oil prices. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in global demand forecasts could move this market. Even significant weather events, particularly those affecting oil infrastructure, could play a role. Traders will be closely monitoring these signals to adjust their positions.