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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T13:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T13:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 9:15 AM and 9:30 AM ET on October 16th. You'll find a history of how those probabilities have shifted over time, providing insight into trader sentiment. The dashboard also displays the current 24-hour trading volume of $7, indicating how actively this market is being traded. Total volume for this market is currently $7.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets can offer a different perspective than polls or expert opinions. Analysts often base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, while this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies between this market and analyst expectations can sometimes signal overlooked factors or biases in traditional forecasting methods.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will increase or decrease during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants actively trading in this market, offering a real-time assessment of potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of crude oil moved up or down between 9:15 AM and 9:30 AM ET on October 16th. The final price will be determined by a trusted source of market data, ensuring an objective and verifiable result for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence trading activity in this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also drive price movements. Even news regarding OPEC+ production decisions or major energy company announcements could impact trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.