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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8AM-8:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 8:15 AM EST

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8AM-8:15AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T12:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T12:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down during the specified timeframe. You'll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to short-term crude oil price movements.

Currently, it's important to note that this market represents the collective prediction of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals how crowd wisdom differs from expert opinion. Often, prediction markets can provide a more accurate forecast than polls or individual analyst predictions, as they aggregate information from a diverse range of participants. However, it’s also possible that analyst forecasts and this market diverge, reflecting differing assumptions or access to information regarding the factors influencing crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified 8AM-8:15AM ET window on October 16th. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the changing expectations of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and trader sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil during the 8:00 AM to 8:15 AM Eastern Time window on October 16th. If the price is higher at 8:15 AM ET than at 8:00 AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, 'Crude Oil Down' will prevail.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to the resolution date. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or changes in political stability, could trigger price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, are also likely to move the market. Furthermore, any significant news regarding OPEC+ production decisions or major shifts in energy policy could impact trader sentiment and cause fluctuations in the odds for this market.