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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8:45AM-9AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T12:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T12:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on this short-term oil price fluctuation.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they represent a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ approach, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. While analysts may focus on fundamental factors like supply and demand, this market incorporates real-time sentiment and anticipates potential surprises. It's common to see discrepancies, especially in the short term, as traders react quickly to new information.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures the market odds are always current and responsive to new information, offering a unique perspective on potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the difference between the high and low price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil during the 8:45AM-9:00AM ET window on October 16th. If the high price is higher than the low price, the market will resolve to ‘Crude Oil Up’; otherwise, it will resolve to ‘Crude Oil Down’.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected news regarding OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or even surprising inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration could all cause substantial shifts in the odds. Additionally, major economic data releases or shifts in global risk sentiment could influence traders’ expectations about future oil demand and, consequently, the price movement during the specified timeframe. Any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply or demand could also play a role.