TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$238,896,186

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,934,485

408,127

Markets across

39,552

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,429

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 8:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T12:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T12:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down between 8:15AM and 8:30AM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The current 24-hour volume is also displayed, indicating how much trading activity has occurred recently. Currently, the total volume for this market is $0 and the 24-hour volume is $0.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially offering a different perspective than individual analyst predictions. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges, this market represents a probabilistic view of the outcome – a forecast of the likelihood of an increase or decrease in the crude oil price. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their forecasts are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market that accurately reflects the probability of the event occurring.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of crude oil moved up or down between 8:15AM and 8:30AM ET on October 16th. The final price change will be verified against publicly available data sources. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake.

Several factors could influence the trading in this market before resolution. Unexpected news regarding oil supply, such as production cuts or discoveries, could significantly shift the odds. Geopolitical events, particularly those affecting major oil-producing regions, are also likely to have an impact. Economic data releases, especially those related to global demand, could also move the market. Finally, any significant shifts in market sentiment or unexpected announcements from OPEC or other key players could influence traders' perceptions and alter the price of contracts in this market.