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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7AM-7:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7AM-7:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7AM-7:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 7:15 AM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7AM-7:15AM ET

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Settled
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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price going up or down during the specified time window. You’ll find a real-time display of trading volume, currently at $0, as well as the 24-hour volume. The dashboard also shows the historical price action of this market, allowing you to analyze how sentiment has shifted over time. This provides a dynamic view of what traders believe about the short-term direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, it's a mixed picture when comparing this market to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts predict moderate price fluctuations, prediction markets often reflect a broader range of potential outcomes and incorporate information from a diverse group of participants. This can lead to differences in perceived probabilities, as prediction markets are driven by actual trading activity rather than subjective opinions. It’s important to remember that both sources have their strengths and weaknesses when attempting to forecast the future price of crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the 7AM-7:15AM ET window on October 16th. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. The current volume of trading is $0, indicating the level of interest and conviction among traders regarding this event.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil during the 7:00 AM to 7:15 AM Eastern Time window on October 16th. If the price at that time is higher than the opening price, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will be determined. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, could cause prices to spike. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US employment reports), could also influence sentiment. Furthermore, any significant announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or policy changes would likely trigger substantial movement in this market. Keep an eye on these key indicators as the resolution date approaches.