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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down during the specified time window. You’ll find a dynamic display of the odds, reflecting the collective predictions of traders. It also shows the price history of this market, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. Finally, the dashboard provides a view of the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, indicating the level of recent activity and interest in this particular market.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions within this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or individual analyst reports. Analysts frequently issue price targets or directional recommendations, but this market represents a continuously updated assessment of probability based on real-money trading. If analyst forecasts consistently diverge from the implied probabilities shown here, it could suggest differing interpretations of the available information regarding crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the 7:30AM-7:45AM ET window on October 16. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current volume of trading is $0, which influences the depth and liquidity of the market, impacting how quickly prices respond to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil during the 7:30AM-7:45AM ET time frame on October 16. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market, as determined by publicly available price data at the close of the specified period.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also move prices. Furthermore, any significant news regarding OPEC+ production decisions or inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) could cause substantial shifts in trader sentiment and, therefore, the price of contracts in this market.