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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET - Predict

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·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 7:30 AM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total group volume, which is $0. This provides a quick overview of market activity and where traders are placing their bets.

Currently, it's important to note that this market's predictions are solely based on the collective intelligence of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals how crowd wisdom differs from expert opinions. Often, prediction markets can offer a more up-to-date and nuanced view, as they react quickly to new information. However, it’s also common to see discrepancies, with analysts potentially factoring in longer-term trends or proprietary data not reflected in the immediate trading activity of this market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will increase or decrease within the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 7:15 AM and 7:30 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 7:30 AM ET than at 7:15 AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies, could cause substantial price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any major news regarding inventory levels, refinery outages, or shifts in currency exchange rates could impact trader sentiment and, consequently, the price action in this market. Keep an eye on these developments for potential shifts in the odds.